Customer lifetime value, cohorts and predicted LTV

The data underneath

Each customer is identified by Shopify customer id or email. Each order carries its revenue after refunds, gross profit, contribution margin and first-order attributes, so LTV can be shown as revenue or as profit.

Cohorts

Customers are grouped by the week, month, quarter or year of their first order. The 14 metrics are cumulative revenue, gross profit and contribution margin per customer; contribution after CAC, revenue ÷ CAC and gross profit ÷ CAC; retention and returning customers; orders per customer, period sales, period orders and period AOV; cohort revenue in total; and "purchased X times". Each row shows CAC, R% (the share with a second order) and the first order.

A green outline marks the period where a cohort paid back its CAC. Striped cells show the cohort predicted up to 24 months ahead. Filter by first product, product type, vendor, discount code, country, first ad channel, sales channel, UTM source, medium or campaign, customer tag or order tag. View it as a matrix or as curves, and export to CSV.

How predicted LTV works

Your store's history gives a monthly repeat curve: what customers bought in each month after their first order. Only customers old enough for a month count toward it, and months with fewer than 20 such customers fall back to the last reliable month, decayed. A customer's prediction is their value so far plus the curve for the months they have not reached yet, scaled by a personal factor. A one-time buyer gets 0.5, an average customer 1, and one who bought three times the average 2. You see predictions at 3, 6, 12 and 24 months, the expected value over the next 12 months, and the chance of a second order by days since the first.

Repurchase timing and LTV drivers

• Days between orders 1→2, 2→3 and 3→4.
• Repurchase rate per first-order month within 30, 60, 90, 180 and 365 days, with incomplete windows flagged.
• Who comes back within 90 days by any first-order attribute, including the same-product repurchase rate.
• Product journey: what customers buy on their next order, and products often bought together, with lift.
• LTV drivers: first-order attributes ranked by LTV over an equal 90, 180 or 365-day span, against the average.

RFM segments and Klaviyo audiences

Recency, frequency and monetary value are scored 1 to 5 by quintile within your store and mapped to 11 segments: Champions, Loyal, Potential loyalists, New customers, Promising, Need attention, About to sleep, At risk, Can't lose them, Hibernating and Lost. A segment can be kept in a Klaviyo list daily, with roasaurus_* profile properties for segment, revenue, predicted 12-month LTV, expected value over the next 12 months, orders and last order. On a list with 30 or more members, a run that would remove more than a third of it is paused instead. This needs a Klaviyo private key; see Klaviyo. The Audiences page sends the same segments, or audiences built from your own rules, to Meta, Google Ads, TikTok, Pinterest, Snapchat, LinkedIn, Microsoft Advertising, X and Reddit as customer lists, for targeting, lookalikes or exclusion. Only people with marketing consent are sent.

Benchmarks

Your last 90 days against peer stores on ROASaurus in the same AOV band, or against all peer stores when that band has fewer than 5: AOV, gross and net margin, blended ROAS, ad spend as a share of revenue, refund rate, new-customer share, 90-day repeat rate and 180-day LTV. Only quartiles are shown, and only when there are at least 5 peers. Benchmarks refresh daily.

Subscriptions

Connect Recharge, Skio, Loop, Bold, Seal, Appstle, Shopify subscription contracts or Stripe Billing to see active subscribers, MRR and ARR, MRR movements, subscriber and revenue churn, churn reasons, skips and pauses, subscriber cohorts and how many one-time buyers become subscribers. Every order is marked as one-time, a first subscription order or a renewal, so profit and LTV reports can be split by it, and renewals are not sent to ad platforms as new purchases unless you ask for it.

Who it is for and setup

Brands with repeat buyers that want to know how much they can pay to acquire a customer. LTV uses the orders ROASaurus already has from Shopify or your connector. Set product costs in profit analytics to see LTV as profit, and connect your ad accounts for CAC.

Limits

• CAC uses spend synced from your connected ad accounts plus any manual ad spend you enter.
• Predictions lean on your own history, so a young store has a short, thin repeat curve.